Trump’s Math Behind Medicaid Fraud Claims Doesn’t Add Up — Literally

The Trump administration is bad at math.

On Friday, the Associated Press reported that an administration official admitted to miscounting how many people in New York receive care through home and community-based services by millions.

Home and community-based services were established during the Reagan administration, Like the name suggests, these services help disabled people stay in their communities instead of institutions. Care through HCBS can include having skilled nursing, delivered meals and building modifications at one’s home.

This estimation error is important in a time when Medicaid is under attack. Last year, Congress passed nearly $1 triillion worth of cuts to this program. The Trump administration’s continued attacks on Medicaid also hint that more cuts could be coming.

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services head Dr. Mehmet Oz claimed in March that around five million out of roughly eight million people on Medicaid in the state of New York receive home care.

In actuality, the number is around 450,000.

“CMS is committed to ensuring its analyses fully reflect state-specific billing practices and will continue to work closely with New York to validate data and strengthen program integrity oversight,” spokesman Chris Krepich told the AP in a statement. CMS did not respond to Mother Jones’ request for comment by the time of publication.

The administration’s accusations of rampant fraud across the system. During a House committee hearing on alleged Medicaid and Medicare fraud, CMS deputy administrator Kimberly Brandt bragged about CMS’s fraud detection through its aggressive-sounding fraud war room, as I reported:

In Oz’s absence, CMS deputy administrator Kimberly Brandt claimed that the agency’s “fraud war room” was using artificial intelligence to root out alleged Medicare and Medicaid fraud, particularly increased rates of home and community-based services billing in New York and California.

“We are constantly using heat maps and data analysis to be able to look and see where we think the largest shifts are,” Brandt said.

As I’ve also previously reported, there are around seven million disabled people and older adults on Medicaid. Just about every state is expected to enact cuts to home and community-based services due to its being an optional Medicaid program.

Home and community-based services also save money for states. According to KFF, the cost of HCBS on average per person is around $36,000, whereas long-term care in places like nursing homes for people on Medicaid is around $47,000.

This underlines how attacks on HCBS are not only heartless in forcing people out of their communities, it also doesn’t make much financial sense.