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Boosted by slightlyoff@toot.cafe ("Alex Russell"):
mpt@mastodon.nz ("Matthew Thomas") wrote:
@slightlyoff Zeynep’s Law: “Until there is substantial and repeated evidence otherwise, assume counterintuitive findings to be false, and second-order effects to be dwarfed by first-order ones in magnitude.”
Examples: “vaccine injuries”, regulatory capture, wealth-tax-driven emigration lowering the tax take, seatbelts encouraging risky behaviour, heavier Web pages being faster than lighter ones … They’re all possible, just presumptively less likely than the opposite.