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jsonstein@masto.deoan.org ("Jeff Sonstein") wrote:
“Since 1998, election polls in presidential, House, Senate and governor’s races have diverged from the final vote tally by an average of six percentage points… 2022 midterm elections, that average error was 4.8 points… if the polls are underestimating Ms. Harris by 4.8 points in each of the seven swing states, she would win every one of them… If those same polls underestimate Mr. Trump by the same margin, he would win all the battleground states...”