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Boosted by jsonstein@masto.deoan.org ("Jeff Sonstein"):
rooster@beige.party ("Jessica") wrote:
In the next weeks I anticipate we will hear a lot about Iran's ~400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which they will probably refer to using the more scary phrase "Highly Enriched Uranium" or HEU.
They will talk about how it is "out of control," which means the IAEA doesn't have tracking of it.
This COULD be enriched to weapons-grade, and used for a bomb, IF they have an enrichment facility to do it in. That's a very very VERY big if. There's a very high chance their only three facilities were just destroyed.
I think the odds of having a secret facility outside the knowledge of the international community is low. Not only are they hard to hide, but they're almost impossible to build without raising flags. As it turns out, a lot of centrifuges require very specialized equipment and parts. You can't build a nuclear facility in secret very easily.
This is RIPE for fear mongering. I'm not a non-proliferation expert but I'll do my best to keep folks informed, as well as boost any voices or sources I find on the matter. As always happy to field questions.