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jonny@neuromatch.social ("jonny (nonvenomous)") wrote:

You had better fucking believe that citation of "1.6x productivity gain estimated by conversations with Claude" is referencing when anthropic asked Claude to estimate how long each task that someone used Claude for would take without Claude. You know, the same frontier LLM that has a sense of time that makes it routinely say things like adding an api endpoint will take months, and is constantly telling me to go to bed in the middle of the day

The productivity gain per instance starts at 0.30–0.45 in logs, reflecting estimates from field trials and frontier firms (Brynjolfsson et al., 2025; Huang et al., 2025), about a quarter of the gain of 1.6 estimated from conversations with Claude (Tamkin and McCrory, 2025). The scenarios also differ in whether that gap closes. In the modest scenario, the productivity gain per task is fixed, whereas in the extreme scenario it reaches 0.80 by 2030.