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Boosted by slightlyoff@toot.cafe ("Alex Russell"):
jalefkowit@hachyderm.io ("Jason Lefkowitz") wrote:
"The industry's strongest defense of these products is that markets aggregate dispersed information that polling and expert panels cannot. Grant the claim its most favorable form, and it still does not get the industry where it needs to go. Whatever information a prediction market produces is a byproduct of the betting, not a good anyone set out to make. The trading builds nothing, finances nothing, and employs no one. It is zero-sum by construction, a transfer from the traders who are wrong to the traders who are right, and after the platform takes its cut it is negative-sum, a transfer from everyone at the table to the house."