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Boosted by pixxl:
jonny@neuromatch.social ("jonny (nonvenomous)") wrote:

I missed the anthropic IPO prospectus leak to reuters, and hopefully everyone has already had the laugh about the net $8 billion operational loss, but this part is the funniest to me:

Anthropic said nearly a quarter of its revenue came from two customers last year

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-sweeping-ai-vision-surging-costs-2026-09-28/

https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/

And all of the options for who that could be are funny:

  • meta estimated it could spend $10bn on anthropic models annually, presumably during its tokenmaxxing leaderboard era
  • If they were talking about 2025, there was a report that Cursor and Copilot were driving a quarter of the revenue
  • I think this excludes the Amazon bedrock/google revenue, because that was reported along a separate axis, but if not they'd be the two

So a huge chunk of the revenue, which doesn't cover operational costs, comes from your direct competitors directly using it to try and build their own replacement product, from resellers who either are your competitors or have been bought by them, or from circular spending.

I would assume they don't group the revenue from distillation as a single customer either. anthropic is extremely cagey about how they present the numbers, alibaba alone had 151 million distillation "exchanges" which could mean anything from billions to quadrillions of tokens depending on if that means send/receive turns or whole sessions.

https://www.anthropic.com/threat-intelligence-report-september-2026#illicit-distillation-sep-26

IPO looking great!!!