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jonny@neuromatch.social ("jonny (nonvenomous)") wrote:

Oh sure yeah theres no reason to believe that "AI" might differ from other forms of automation in the number of new tasks have to be done compared to the automation of 1987-2017

The reinstatement ratio 𝜌 is the mass of new labor tasks created per unit of tasks automated. In the decomposition of Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019), new tasks roughly kept pace with automated ones over 1947–87 and ran at about half of them over 1987–2017. The modest scenario’s 0.5 is thus similar to recent history. The extreme scenario’s 0 assumes that AI does not create any new tasks for humans to perform.