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baldur@toot.cafe ("Baldur Bjarnason") wrote:

That would require a run of electoral wins unprecedented in Icelandic history

Only one other cause has come close to maintaining broad public support here in Iceland for a similarly extended period of time, over multiple election wins:

Nationalism.

Which is exactly the cause lined up AGAINST joining.

So, I'd be very surprised if joining happened even if "yes" wins both the referendum on opening negotiations and a future referendum on joining.